By 2050 there is likely to be a fivefold increase in vision impairment (VI) due to myopic macular degeneration (MMD) because of the growing prevalence of myopia globally, according to researchers at Brien Holden Vision Institute and Singapore Eye Institute.

Published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology, the study finds an estimated 10 million people were vision impaired due to MMD in 2015 (3.3 million of whom were blind), projected to reach 55.7 million (including 18.5 million who will be blind) by 2050. It reviews population-based and blindness registry studies to estimate the global prevalence of VI/blindness associated with MMD, with modelling and projections to 2050. 

While it appears most dramatic in young East Asians, the prevalence of myopia and high myopia (spherical equivalent ≤−5.00 D) has been increasing across a variety of regions and age groups. The authors say despite many prevalence studies on myopia, there have been no estimates of the regional or global prevalence of VI caused by high myopia or MMD, or any projected future changes.

The study says global myopia and high myopia prevalence is projected to continue to rise as a consequence of “trends in lifestyle, education and demographics.” Co-author and outgoing CEO at Brien Holden Vision Institute, Professor Kovin Naidoo, says that along with MMD there is likely to be an increase in the number of people with cataract, glaucoma and retinal pathologies such as tears and detachment. “This analysis will complement estimates on these other conditions, and will be critical to planning and informing strategies for prevention and management as health care systems adapt to the dramatic increase in the number of people with vision impairment,” he says.